Human performance modeling for emergency management decision making

Abstract

Objective: Computer simulation models allow users to analyze problems and identify improvements. Human performance models (HPMs) are a type of computer simulation model that is used to study and evaluate complex operations involving humans completing tasks. This article describes the advantages that HPMs can have for those involved in emergency management.
Design: IMPRINT Pro is an HPM software tool developed by the US Army Research Laboratory. It is a stochastic discrete-event network modeling tool. The modeling process includes defining tasks to be completed, the personnel responsible for performing the task, the success probability for each task and the operation as a whole, resource availability and limitations, and other features to evaluate scenarios. The results include easy-to-use task network diagrams and corresponding performance metrics. The models can be used as a preplanning and training tool to improve an organization’s performance.
Setting: To demonstrate the benefits of simulation modeling for emergency management, a case study of a combined anthrax and bomb threat made at a university is presented. Data from first responders including police and fire departments and the procedures used are modeled.
Results: The case study shows the complexity of many emergency management situations. Human performance modeling is a powerful tool that can provide insight to different possibilities in these complex situations and can predict outcomes without having to go through an actual emergency event or costly drills. Computer modeling saves money, time, and efforts for emergency managers and responders. These models serve as useful training and evaluation tools.