Radiological dispersal events within urban environments: A general method of measuring the economic impacts

Antoine N. Munfakh, MS; David A. Smith, PhD; Daniel T. Holt, PhD; Leonard J. Kloft, PhD; Eric J. Unger, PhD; Jeremy M. Slagley, PhD

doi:10.5055/jem.2011.0067

Authors

Antoine N. Munfakh, MS
David A. Smith, PhD
Daniel T. Holt, PhD
Leonard J. Kloft, PhD
Eric J. Unger, PhD
Jeremy M. Slagley, PhD

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5055/jem.2011.0067

Keywords:

cost estimation, radiological dispersal event, level of impact analysis, planning

Abstract

A radiological dispersal device (or dirty bomb) is an affordable, feasible, and economically devastating option for terrorists. By using an input-output modeling technique, the authors present a general method to assess economic impacts resulting from the use of such a device that will aid researchers, government planners, officials, and key stakeholders. The authors extended previous efforts that focused only on direct effects, exploring the indirect and induced effects as well. In applying the method to the case of a mid-sized city, the authors quantified the area within the city with the largest impact, the central business district. More specifically, the detonation of a dirty bomb in this city’s central business district would cost approximately $1.4 billion and impact 860 firms in 270 distinct industries. In addition, approximately 18,000 people would be unemployed immediately following the attack, with an additional 113,000 people affected by the shift in the local economy as a result of indirect and induced effects.

Author Biographies

Antoine N. Munfakh, MS

Student Pilot, 47 Operation Support Squadron, Laughlin Air Force Base, Texas.

David A. Smith, PhD

Chief of Radiation Health, Office of the Air Force Surgeon General, Washington, District of Columbia.

Daniel T. Holt, PhD

Department of Management and Information Systems, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, Mississippi.

Leonard J. Kloft, PhD

Assistant Dean, College of Business Administration, University Detroit Mercy, Detroit, Michigan.

Eric J. Unger, PhD

Department of Systems and Engineering Management, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio.

Jeremy M. Slagley, PhD

Technical Services Branch, US Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine, Kettering, Ohio.

References

Grotto A: Defusing the Threat of Radiological Weapons: Integrting Prevention and Detection and Response. Washington, DC: Center for American Progress, 2005.

US Department of Homeland Security: National Disaster Planning Scenarios.Washington, DC: US Department of Homeland Security, 2006.

Gardner F: Al-Qaeda “was making a dirty bomb”. BBC News World Edition, January 31, 2003.

Baker A, Rashbaum WK: Police find car bomb in Times Square. New York Times, May 1, 2010.

Frost RM: Nuclear Terrorism After 9/11. New York: Routledge, 2005.

Ferguson CD, Kazi T, Perera J: Commercial Radioactive Sources: Surveying the Security Risks. Monteray, CA: Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, 2003.

Smith DA, Holt DT, Fentiman A: A conceptual model for determining the level of impact from a radiological dispersal event. J Emerg Manage. 2010; 8: 25-36.

United States General Accountability Office (GAO): Disaster cost estimates: FEMA can improve its learning from past experiences and management of disaster-related resources. Report to Congressional Committee.Washington, DC: US GAO, 2008.

United States General Accountability Office (GAO): Disaster relief fund: FEMA’s estimates of funding requirements can be improved.Washington, DC: US GAO, 2000.

Council on Foreign Relations: Backgrounder: Dirty bombs. New York: Council on Foreign Relations; October 19, 2006. Available at http://www.cfr.org/publication/9548/. Accessed May 21, 2010.

Warwick M: Psychological effects of weapons of mass destruction. The Beacon: National Domestic Preparedness Office Newsletter. 2001; 3: 1-4.

Monterey Institute of International Studies Center for Nonproliferation Studies: Radiologial Terrorism. Nuclear Threat Initiative. Monterey, CA: Monterey Institute of International Studies, 2004.

Thompson WC Jr: One Year Later: The Fiscal Impact of 9/11 on New York City. New York: Comptroller of the City of New York. Available at http://comptroller.nyc.gov/bureaus/bud/reports/impact-9-11-year-later.pdf. Accessed July 18, 2011.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): The Radiological Accident in Goiania. Vienna, Austria: IAEA, 1988.

Sohier A, Hardeman F: Radiological dispersion devices: Are we prepared? J Environ Radioactivity. 2006; 85: 171-181.

Flynn CB: Three Mile Island Telephone Survey: Preliminary Report on Procedures and Findings. Tempe, AZ: Mountain West Research, Inc, 1979.

Walker SJ: Three Mile Island: A Nuclear Crisis in Historical Perspective. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2004.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): Chernobyl’s Legacy: Health, Environmental, and Socio-Economic Impacts and Recommendations to the Governments of Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The Chernobyl Forum 2003-2005. Vienna, Austria: Division of Public Information, IAEA, 2006.

Rosoff H, von Winterfeldt D: A risk and economic analysis of dirty bomb attacks on the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Risk Anal. 2007; 27: 533-546.

Burton F: Dirty bombs: Weapons of mass disruption. Secure Community Network; October 4, 2006. Available at http://www.scnus.org/page.aspx?id=101461. Accessed September 30, 2010.

LeBrun MT: The Economic Impact of a Radiological Dispersal Event (RDE). Wright Patterson Air Force Base, OH: Air Force Institute of Technology, 2009.

Leontief WW: Input-Output Economics. 2nd ed. New York: Oxford University Press, 1986.

Cheng S, Stough RR, Kocornik-Mina A: Estimating the economic consequences of terrorist disruptions in the national capital region: An application of input-output analysis. J Homeland Secur Emerg Manage. 2006; 3: Article 12.

Rose A, Oladosu G, Liao S-Y: Business interuption impacts of a terrorist attack on the electric power system of Los Angeles: Customer resilience to a total blackout. Risk Anal. 1997; 27: 513-531.

Okuyama Y, Hewings GJ, Kim TJ, et al.: Economic impact of an earthquake in the New Madrid siesmic zone: A multiregional analysis. In Proceedings of the 5th US Conference on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering. Seattle,WA: U.S. Geological Society, 1999.

Lamb RP: An exposure based analysis of property and casualty insurer stock values around Hurricane Andrew. J Risk Insur. 1995; 62: 111-123.

Minnesota IMPLAN Group: IMPLAN economic impact modeling solutions. Available at www.IMPLAN.com. Accessed May 21, 2010.

Natural Resources Conservation Service: IMPLAN model. Department of Agriculture. Available at http://www.economics.nrcs.usda.gov/technical/implan/implanmodel.html. Accessed May 21, 2010.

US Census Bureau: County Business Patterns. Available at http://www.census.gov/econ/cbp/index.html. Accessed May 21, 2010.

US Census Bureau: American Fact Finder. Available at http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en. Accessed May 21, 2010.

Clark J: Estimation of economies of scale in banking using a generalized functional form. J Money Credit Banking. 1984; 16: 53-68.

Club de Madrid: Addressing the Causes of Terrorism: The Club de Madrid Series on Democracy and Terrorism. The International Summet on Democracy, Terrorism, and Security. I. Madrid, Spain: Club de Madrid, 2005.

Center for Non-Proliferation Studies: Center for non-proliferation studies. M. I. Studies, Producer, Radiological Terrorism Tutorial; Chapters 2 and 4: Available at http://www.nti.org/h_learnmore/radtutorial/index.html. Accessed May 21, 2010.

US Census Bureau: 2007 Economic Census. Available at http://www.census.gov/econ/census07/. Accessed May 21, 2010.

Blair JP, Carroll MC: Local Economic Development: Analysis, Practices, and Globalization. 2nd ed. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 2009.

Kelly C: A framework for improving operational effectiveness and cost efficiency in emergency planning and response. Disaster Prev Manage. 1995; 4: 25-31.

U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis: Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II): Estimation, Evaluation, and Application of a Disaggregated Regional Impact Model.Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1981.

Musolino SV, Harper FT: Emergency response guidance for the first 48 hours after the outdoor detonation of an explosive radiological dispersal device. Health Phys. 2006, 90: 377-385.

Zeigler DJ, Johnson JH Jr: Evacuation behavior in response to nuclear power plant accidents. Prof Geographer. 1984; 36(2): 207-215.

Steinhausler F: Chernobyl and Goiänia lessons for responding to radiological terrorism. Health Phys. 2005; 89: 566-574.

Conklin CW: Proposed framework for cleanup and site restoration following a terrorist incident involving radioactive material. Health Phys. 2005; 89: 575-588.