Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription or Fee Access

Mitigating active shooter impact: Analysis for policy options based on agent/computer-based modeling

Charles Anklam III, PhD, Adam Kirby, MS, Filipo Sharevski, MS, J. Eric Dietz, PhD, PE

Abstract


Active shooting violence at confined settings, such as educational institutions, poses serious security concerns to public safety. In studying the effects of active shooter scenarios, the common denominator associated with all events, regardless of reason/intent for shooter motives, or type of weapons used, was the location chosen and time expended between the beginning of the event and its culmination. This in turn directly correlates to number of casualties incurred in any given event. The longer the event protracts, the more casualties are incurred until law enforcement or another barrier can react and culminate the situation.

Objective: Using AnyLogic technology, devise modeling scenarios to test multiple hypotheses against free-agent modeling simulation to determine the best method to reduce casualties associated with active shooter scenarios.

Design, setting, subjects: Test four possible scenarios of responding to active shooter in a public school setting using agent-based computer modeling techniques—scenario 1: basic scenario where no access control or any type of security is used within the school; scenario 2, scenario assumes that concealed carry individual(s) (5-10 percent of the work force) are present in the school; scenario 3, scenario assumes that the school has assigned resource officer; scenario 4, scenario assumes that the school has assigned resource officer and concealed carry individual(s) (5-10 percent) present in the school.

Main outcomes measured: Statistical data from modeling scenarios indicating which tested hypothesis resulted in fewer casualties and quicker culmination of event.

Results: The use of AnyLogic proved the initial hypothesis that a decrease on response time to an active shooter scenario directly reduced victim casualties.

Conclusions: Modeling tests show statistically significant fewer casualties in scenarios where on-scene armed responders such as resource officers and concealed carry personnel were present.


Keywords


active shooter, agent-based modeling, Mitigation

Full Text:

PDF

References


Department of Homeland Security: Active Shooter: How to respond. Available at http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/active_shooter_booklet.pdf. Accessed February 27, 2013.

Office of the Virginia Governor: Report of the Virginia Tech Review Panel. Available at http://www.april16archive.org/items/show/1242. Accessed February 28, 2013.

Northern Illinois University Board of Trustees: Report of the February 14, 2008 Shootings at Northern Illinois University. Available at http://www.niu.edu/feb14report/Feb14report.pdf. Accessed February 28, 2013.

NBC News Report: Official: 1 dead, 4 hurt in Ohio school shooting. Available at http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/02/27/10517706-official-1-dead-4-hurt-in-ohio-school-shooting. Accessed February 27, 2013.

Wollan M, Onishi N: Gunman Kills 7 in a Rampage at a Northern California University. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/03/us/fatal-shootings-at-oikos-university-in-oaklandcalif.html. Accessed February 27, 2013.

Barron J: Children Were All Shot Multiple Times With a Semiautomatic, Officials Say. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/16/nyregion/gunman-kills-20-children-at-school-inconnecticut-28-dead-in-all.html. Accessed February 27, 2013.

MSA Security: Special Analysis: The Active Shooter Thread. Available at http://cdn2.hubspot.net/hub/91068/file-15973733-pdf/docs/msa_special_analysis_-_active_shooter_threat_8.20.12.pdf. Accessed February 27, 2013.

Dardsdale DA: Campus Attacks: Targeted Violence Affecting Institutions of Higher Education. Available at http://www2.ed.gov/admins/lead/safety/campus-attacks.pdf. Accessed February 27, 2013.

Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence. Available at http://www.bradycampaign.org/. Accessed November 20, 2013.

Federal Bureau of Investigation Crime Reports. Available at http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr. Accessed March 14, 2014.

Krouse WJ: “Gun Control Legislation,” Congressional Research Report prepared for congress. November 14, 2012.

Hemenway D: The epidemiology of U.S. firearm injuries. J Public Health Policy. 2003; 24(3/4): 380-385.

Cook PJ, Ludwig J: Guns in America: National Survey on Private Ownership and Use of Firearms. National Institute of Justice, Research Brief, May 1997.

Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence. Available at http://smartgunlaws.org. Accessed February 14, 2014.

USA Today Report: NRA Plan Would Change Security in Most Schools. Available at http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2012/12/21/nra-newtown-police-in-schools/1784953/. Accessed February 14, 2014.

Rostron A, Siebel B: No Gun Left Behind—The Gun Lobby's Campaign to Push Guns into Colleges and Schools. Washington, DC: Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence, 2007.

Smith L, Supiano B: Major shootings on American college campuses. Chron High Educ. 2007; 53(34): A19.

Bronars SG, Lott J Jr: Criminal deterrence, geographic spillovers, and the right to carry concealed handguns. Am Econ Rev. 1998; 88(2): 475-479.

Buster C: Patrol response challenge. NCJRS Law Order. 2008; 56(6): 62-68.

USA Today Report: Police response to Minn. shootings hailed. Available at http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/nation/2005-04-05-red-lake-response_x.htm#. Accessed February 28, 2013.

Droppings T: The Columbine resource office and the Virginia Tech police force. Available at http://www.tigerdroppings.com/rant/p/38637392/The-Columbine-resource-office-and-the-Virginia-Tech-police-force.aspx. Accessed February 28, 2013.

Rivera L: Active Shooter Incidents. Available at http://www.endesastres.org/files/Active_Shooter_Incident_FINAL.pdf. Accessed February 28, 2013.

Frazzano T: Local jurisdictions and active shooters building networks, building capacities. Available at https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=11541. Accessed February 28, 2013.

National School Shield Task Force: Report of the National School Shield Task Force. Available at http://www.nraschoolshield.com/NSS_Final_FULL.pdf. Accessed February 28, 2013.

Bonabeau E: Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems. Available at http://www.pnas.org/content/99/suppl_3/7280.short. Accessed March 3, 2013.

Borshchev A, Karpov Y, Kharitonov V: From system dynamics and discrete event to practical agent based modeling: Reasons, techniques, tools. Available at http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/systemdyndiscreteeventabmcompared.borshchevfilippov04.pdf. Accessed March 3, 2013.

Muhdi RA: Evacuation modeling: Development, characteristics, and limitations. Available at http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:c3wUgttI7OEJ:202.193.70.166/mirror/MECEMIRROR/MachineMirror06/JX10others611122.pdf+&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us. Accessed March 3, 2013.

Fowler PJ, et al.: Community violence: A meta-analysis on the effect of exposure and mental health outcomes of children and adolescents. Dev Psychopathol. 2009; 21: 227-259.

Kerlikowske GR: Safe at home? Policing the U.S. hometown in a post 9/11 environment. J Crim Law Criminol. 2008; 50: 47-58.

Moorhouse JC, Wanner B: Does gun control reduce crime or does crime increase gun control?. Cato J. Winter 2006; 26(1): 103.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.5055/jem.2015.0234

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2015 Journal of Emergency Management