Preliminary modeling of Coronavirus (COVID-19) spread in construction industry

Mahdi Afkhamiaghda, MSc, PhD Candidate; Emad Elwakil, PhD, PE, CCE, PMP

doi:10.5055/jem.2020.0481

Authors

Mahdi Afkhamiaghda, MSc, PhD Candidate
Emad Elwakil, PhD, PE, CCE, PMP

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5055/jem.2020.0481

Keywords:

construction industry, pandemic virus, simulation, Coronavirus, COVID-19

Abstract

The construction industry creates 1.3 trillion revenue each year in the United States. After Coronavirus (COVID-19) becoming a pandemic virus, many industries are shutting down and being on lockdown. This situation can lead to millions of people becoming unemployed and eventually causing a financial recession. Although the government and health organizations have issued guidelines to prevent the spread of the virus in the jobsites, there have not been any specific guidelines for construction industry workers. The contribution of this research is to develop a preliminary model and indicator of coronavirus (COVID-19) spread in the construction industry. This paper investigates the preliminary indexes, which can affect the spread of coronavirus in the construction industry. The developed model would act as a guide for stakeholders to take the most appropriate precautions in the jobsite with the available equipment and facilities

Author Biographies

Mahdi Afkhamiaghda, MSc, PhD Candidate

School of Construction Management, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana

Emad Elwakil, PhD, PE, CCE, PMP

Associate Professor, School of Construction Management, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana

References

Live Science Staff: Coronavirus in the US: Map, case counts and news. 2020. Available at https://www.livescience.com/coronavirusupdates-united-states.html. Accessed March 14, 2020.

The New York Times: Pelosi and trump reach deal on a relief package. 2020. Available at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/world/coronavirus-news-live-updates.html. Accessed March 14, 2020.

Tuite AR, Fisman DN: Reporting, epidemic growth, and reproduction numbers for the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic. Ann Internal Med. 2020; 172(8): 567-568. https://doi.org/10.7326/m20-0358’.

Egan M: Coronavirus could spark another Great Depression, former Trump adviser warns—CNN. 2020. Available at https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/business/great-depression-coronavirus-kevinhassett/index.html. Accessed March 21, 2020.

Smith E: Analyst anticipates "worst" financial crisis since 1929. 2020. Available at https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/analyst-anticipates-worst-crisis-since-1929-amid-recession-fears.html. Accessed March 21, 2020.

Associated General Contractors of America: Construction data. 2020. Available at https://www.agc.org/learn/construction-data. Accessed March 13, 2020.

Schneiderman M: The Impact of Coronavirus on Construction | Fieldwire. 2020. Available at https://www.fieldwire.com/blog/coronavirus-impact-construction/. Accessed March 14, 2020.

Goodman J: Contractors in US’ coronavirus-affected areas say it’s business as usual. 2020. Available at https://www.constructiondive.com/news/contractors-in-us-coronavirus-affected-areas-say-itsbusiness-as-usual/573409/. Accessed March 16, 2020.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: First travel-related case of 2019 novel coronavirus detected in the United States. 2020. Available at https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0121-novelcoronavirus-travel-case.html. Accessed March 17, 2020.

United States Department of Labor: Safety and health topics | COVID-19—Control and Prevention | Occupational Safety and Health Administration. 2020. Available at https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/covid-19/controlprevention.html. Accessed March 16, 2020.

Hern A: Covid-19 could cause permanent shift towards home working. 2020. Available at https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/mar/13/covid-19-could-cause-permanent-shift-towardshome-working. Accessed March 13, 2020.

Gamio L: The workers who face the greatest coronavirus risk. 2020. Available at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/15/business/economy/coronavirus-worker-risk.html. Accessed March 17, 2020.

California Department of Public Health: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). 2020. Available at https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/Immunization/ncov2019.aspx. Accessed March 14, 2020.

Florida Department of Health: COVID-19. 2020. Available at http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/COVID-19/index.html. Accessed March 14, 2020.

IDPH: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). 2020. Available at http://www.dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-conditions/diseases-a-z-list/coronavirus. Accessed March 14, 2020.

New York State Department of Health: Novel coronavirus (COVID-19). 2020. Available at https://www.health.ny.gov/diseases/communicable/coronavirus/. Accessed March 14, 2020.

Texas Health and Human Services: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). 2020. Available at https://www.dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/#casecounts. Accessed March 14, 2020.

Luo W, Majumder MS, Liu D, et al.: The role of absolute humidity on transmission rates of the COVID-19 outbreak. MedRxiv. 2020; 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022467. Available at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022467v1.full.pdf. Accessed March 18, 2020.

Sajadi MM, Habibzadeh P, Vintzileos A, et al.: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19. SSRN Electronic Journal. 2020. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3550308.

International Code Council: 2012 IECC - International Energy Conservation Code. Washington, DC: International Code Council; 2012. Available at https://basc.pnnl.gov/images/iecc-climate-zonemap. Accessed March 18, 2020.

Guo S-J: Identification and resolution of work space conflicts in building construction. J Const Eng Manage. 2002; 128(4): 287–295. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2002)128:4(287).

Torpey E: Careers in construction: Building opportunity. 2018. Available at https://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2018/article/careersin-construction.htm. Accessed March 14, 2020.

U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics: Labor productivity and costs. 2019. Available at https://www.bls.gov/lpc/construction.htm. Accessed March 15, 2020.

CDC Online Newsroom: CDC Media Telebriefing: Update on COVID-19. 2020. Available at https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0309-covid-19-update.html. Accessed April 3, 2020.

Wu Z, McGoogan JM: Characteristics of and important lessons from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in China: Summary of a report of 72 314 cases from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. JAMA. 2020; 50(5): e13233. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.2648.

US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employed persons by detailed occupation and age. 2020. Available at https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat11b.htm. Accessed March 15, 2020.

Schwatka NV, Butler LM, Rosecrance JR: Aging workforce and injury in the construction industry. 2012. Available at https://academic.oup.com/epirev/article/34/1/156/496006. Accessed March 15, 2020.

Zhu Z, Ren X, Chen Z: Visual tracking of construction jobsite workforce and equipment with particle filtering. J Comput Civil Eng. 2016; 30(6): 04016023. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CP.1943-5487.0000573.

Pekoc K: New coronavirus stable for hours on surfaces. 2020. Available at https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/new-coronavirus-stable-hours-surfaces. Accessed May 14, 2020.

Tang B, Bragazzi NL, Li Q, et al.: An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov). Infect Dis Modell. 2020; 5: 248–255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.001.

Hu H, Nigmatulina K, Eckhoff P: The scaling of contact rates with population density for the infectious disease models. Math Biosci. 2013; 244(2): 125–134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2013.04.013.

Dozzi SP, AbouRizk SM: Productivity in construction. 1993. Available at http://web.mit.edu/parmstr/Public/NRCan/nrcc37001.pdf. Accessed April 4, 2020.

Elwakil E, Zayed T: Construction productivity fuzzy knowledge base management system. Can J Civil Eng. 2018; 45(5): 329-338.

Elwakil E, Hegab M: Toward smart and sustainable infrastructure solution: Assessment and modelling of qualitative factors affecting productivity in microtunneling projects. 6th IEEE Conference on Technologies for Sustainability, Long Beach, California, April 23-25, 2020.

Elwakil E, Zayed T, Attia T: Construction productivity model using fuzzy approach. International Construction Specialty Conference, Canadian Society for Civil Engineers, Ottawa, June 08-10, 2015.

Mirahadi S, Elwakil E, Zayed T: An innovative technique for improving productivity forecasting models. Proceedings of 4th Construction Specialty Conference, CSCE, Montreal, QC, Canada, 2013, May 29 to Jun 1, 2013.

Keeling MJ, Rohani P: Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals—Google Books. 2011. Available at https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=LxzILSuKDhUC&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=Modeling+Infectious+Diseases+in+Humans+and+Animals&ots=VImB3fOOIi&sig=qcZtBEgQRTlIO1khYHlZWy6Y3Ps#v=onepage&q=Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans andAnimals&f=false. Accessed April 2, 2020.

Allen LJS: Some discrete-time SI, SIR, and SIS epidemic models. Math Biosci. 1994; 124(1): 83-105. https://doi.org/10.1016/0025-5564(94)90025-6.

Hill C: Scipy. In: Learning Scientific Programming with Python. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press; 2015.

US Census Bureau: Construction Spending Survey. Suitland, MD: US Census Bureau; 2019: 333-380. Available at https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html. Accessed March 17, 2020.

World Population Review: United States by Density 2020. Available at https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/state-densities/. Accessed March 18, 2020.