The disastrous business of presidential campaigns: The effect of disaster declarations on presidential elections in FEMA Region 3

Ken Balbuena, MPA; Tonya E. Thornton, PhD, MPPA; Patrick Baxter, MIDP; Walter English, III, MS; Wendy Chen, PhD

doi:10.5055/jem.0666

Authors

Ken Balbuena, MPA
Tonya E. Thornton, PhD, MPPA
Patrick Baxter, MIDP
Walter English, III, MS
Wendy Chen, PhD

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5055/jem.0666

Keywords:

disaster, declaration, electorate, COVID-19

Abstract

The issuance of disaster declarations has become a politicized matter. Prior research has demonstrated that presidents are more generous in awarding disaster relief in federal election years, and that there is a prevalence to award governors from the opposing political party. Additionally, voters tend to reward presidents seeking re-election to a greater degree for disaster response assistance rather than funding preparedness. The original research for this paper explores the impact of natural disasters on re-election rates and analyzes voter trends during presidential election years in Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Region 3 states for congruence with existing literature covering a national scope. Evaluations of the behaviors and (re)election margins of Presidents Bush and Obama are explored, and implications for President Trump’s re-election effort are based on quantitative data and qualitative comparisons.

Author Biographies

Ken Balbuena, MPA

Government & Public Services Senior Consultant, Springfield, Virginia

Tonya E. Thornton, PhD, MPPA

Principal and Owner, Delta Point Solutions, Port Republic, Virginia

Patrick Baxter, MIDP

George Mason University, Schar School Policy and Government, Arlington, Virginia

Walter English, III, MS

Office of Emergency Management, City of Fairfax, Commonwealth of Virginia, Fairfax, Virginia

Wendy Chen, PhD

Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas

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