Rapid assessment of public interest in drought and its likely drivers in South Africa

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5055/jem.0834

Keywords:

search volumes, Google Trends, monthly volumes, statistical analyses

Abstract

The monthly search volumes for drought were extracted from Google® for South Africa using the Keywordseverywhere.com plugin from January 2004 until June 2022. To identify the potential qualitative drivers for such public interest the following data extracted by the plugin were investigated and analysed: the drought-related keywords, the long-tail keywords similar to drought, and the “people also searched for category” from the South African users. The Google Trends monthly score was extracted for South Africa and the Eastern Cape Province, and specific local municipalities/towns/cities in the province. The aim was to assess the relative significance of the drought interest in comparison to public interest in other search terms. The results of the Kruskal–Wallis analyses of variance by ranks showed that there was a statistically significant difference between individual values of the monthly search volumes for drought in South Africa, as a function of time of data extraction (5 percent level of significance; p-value ≤ 4.7 × 10−14). The monthly search volumes increased with time, which is based on the results of the Mann–Kendall test at a 5 percent level of significance (p-value ≤ 0.0092). Analyses of the Google Trends scores indicate that the relative interest in drought in South Africa and the Eastern Cape Province increased with time between January 2004 and June 2022 (the Mann–Kendall test at a 5 percent level of significance; p-value = 0.0011). The population’s searches for drought were relatively low when compared to other search terms on Google. Drought adaptation of the South African community could be considered a driver of the Google searches for drought, but it is a marginal topic compared to other topics in Google searches. It might be necessary to increase this significance by investigating the “Google-search patterns for droughts” in the areas of Tshikaro, Mafusini, Cofimvaba, and Nxotsheni in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.

Author Biographies

Robyn J. Bayne

School of Disaster Management, Stenden South Africa, Port Alfred, South Africa

Des Pyle, PhD

School of Disaster Management, Stenden South Africa, Port Alfred, South Africa

Masterson Chipumuro, PhD

School of Disaster Management, Stenden South Africa, Port Alfred, South Africa

Roman Tandlich, PhD

Disaster Management and Ethics Research Group (DMERG), Faculty of Pharmacy, Rhodes University, Grahamstown, South Africa

References

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Climate change: A threat to human wellbeing and health of the planet. Taking action now can secure our future. 2022. Available at https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/02/28/pr-wgii-ar6/. Accessed December 28, 2022.

Iheanetu CU, Maguire KA, Moricová V, et al.: Utilitarian qubit, human geography, and pandemic preparedness in the 21st century. Sustainability. 2023; 15(1): 321. DOI: 10.3390/su15010321. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010321

Yan C, Tian H, Wan X, et al.: Climate change affected the spatiotemporal occurrence of disasters in China over the past five centuries. R Soc Open Sci. 2021; 8: 200731. DOI: 10.1098/rsos.200731. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.200731

Shi P, Ye T, Wang Y, et al.: Disaster risk science: A geographical perspective and a research framework. Int J Disaster Risk Sci. 2020; 11: 426-440. DOI: 10.1007/s13753-020-00296-5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-020-00296-5

United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR): Poorly planned urban development. 2013. Available at https://www.preventionweb.net/understanding-disaster-risk/risk-drivers/poorlyplanned-urban-development. Accessed January 8, 2023.

Mızrak S, Çam H: Determining the factors affecting the disaster resilience of countries by geographical weighted regression. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct. 2022; 81: 103311. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103311. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103311

Botzen WJW, Deschenes O, Sanders M: The economic impacts of natural disasters: A review of models and empirical studies. Rev Environ Econ Policy. 2019; 13(2): 167-188. DOI: 10.1093/reep/rez004. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rez004

IRIS-Fire Project: About the IRIS-Fire Project. 2019. Available at https://www.iris-fire.com/about-1/. Accessed January 8, 2023.

Reliefweb: South Africa: Gauteng and North West floods. DREF application (MDRZA013). 2023. Available at https://reliefweb.int/report/south-africa/south-africa-gauteng-and-north-west-floodsdecember-2022-dref-application-mdrza013. Accessed January 8, 2023.

Hughes D: Anatomy of an extended drought in part of the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. IAHS-AISH Scientific Assembly 2022, Montpellier, France, 29 May–3 Jun 2022, IAHS2022-147. 2022. DOI: 10.5194/iahs2022-147. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/iahs2022-147

Zizzamia R, Schotte S, Leibbrandt M, et al.: Vulnerability and the middle class in South Africa. 2016. Available at https://www.opensaldru.Uct.Ac.Za/Handle/11090/846. Accessed January 8, 2023.

Kabala M: How droughts will affect South Africa’s broader economy. 2016-2023. Available at https://theconversation.com/how-droughts-will-affect-south-africas-broader-economy-111378. Accessed January 8, 2023.

Adams L: A rural voice, strategies for drought relief. Indicators S Afr. 1993; 10(4): 41-46. DOI: 10.10520/aja0259188x_176. Accessed November 24, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/fgc.32327

Archer E, Du Toit J, Engelbrecht C, et al.: The 2015-19 multi year drought in the Eastern Cape, South Africa: It’s evolution and impacts on agriculture. J Arid Environ. 2022; 196: 104630. DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2021.104630. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2021.104630

Edossa DC, Woyessa YE, Welderufael WA: Analysis of droughts in the Central Region of South Africa and their association with SST anomalies. Int J Atmos Sci. 2014; 508953: 1-8. DOI: 10.1155/2014/508953. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/508953

Vogel C, Koch I, Van Zyl K: A persistent truth—Reflections on drought risk management in Southern Africa. Weather Clim Soc. 2010; 2(1): 9-22. DOI: 10.1175/2009WCAS1017.1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009WCAS1017.1

Department of Rural Development and Land Reform/ Department of Agriculture and Fisheries: Agripark: Eastern Cape Province. Available at https://www.dalrrd.gov.za/doaDev/sideMenu/About%20us/Agri-Hubs%20identified%20by%20Eastern%20Cape.pdf. Accessed January 9, 2023.

Shao W, Kam J, Cass E: Public awareness and perceptions of drought: A case study of two cities of Alabama. Risk Hazard Crisis Public Policy. 2023; 14(1): 27-44. DOI: 10.1002/rhc3.12248. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/rhc3.12248

Phengsuwan J, Shah T, Thekkummal NB, et al.: Use of social media data in disaster management: A survey. Fut Internet. 2021; 13: 46. DOI: 10.3390/fi13020046. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/fi13020046

Kam J, Stowers K, Kim S: Monitoring of drought awareness from Google Trends: A case study of the 2011-17 California drought. Weather Clim Soc. 2019; 11(2): 419-429. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0085.1

Bergen M: Google will stop reading your emails for Gmail ads. 2017. Available at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-23/google-will-stop-reading-your-emails-for-gmailads#xj4y7vzkg. Accessed January 8, 2023.

Burivalová Z, Butler RA, Wilcove DS: Analyzing google search data to debunk myths about the public’s interest in conservation. Front Ecol Environ. 2018; 16(9): 509-514. DOI: 10.1002/fee.1962. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.1962

Hammer O, Harper DAT, Ryan PD: Past: Paleontological statistics software package for education and data analysis. Palaeontol Electron. 2001; 4(1): 1-9. Available at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259640226_past_paleontological_statistics_software_package_for_education_and_data_analysis. Accessed October 30, 2022.

World Bank Group (WBG): Climate change knowledge portal: Current climate—South Africa. 2021. Available at https://Climateknowledgeportal.Worldbank.Org/Country/South-Africa/Climate-Data-Historical. Accessed November 26, 2023.

Tandlich R, Msimang A, Tamášová V: Letter to the editor: Use of low-cost online tools to estimate the public’s interest in the changing conditions of their existence under the conditions during COVID-19, as a model for the emergency information assessment. J Emerg Manag. 2023; 21(8): 21-26. DOI: 10.5055/jem.0804. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5055/jem.0804

Tsegai D, Adaawen S, Girault F: Preliminary analysis of the national drought plans. United Nations Conventions on Combating Desertification, Bonn, Germany. 2021. Available at https://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/2022-02/Analysis%20of%20National%20Drought%20Plans.pdf. Accessed November 27, 2023.

Madikizela P: Chapter 1: Modelling of public interest in water, sanitation, and hygiene in South Africa and links to disaster preparedness during coronavirus and beyond. Disaster Risk Management Issues in WASH in South Africa: An Examination of Selected Challenges and Development of Possible Solutions [PhD dissertation]. South Africa: Rhodes University, 2023: 14-42. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su14116934

Hughes N, Soh WY, Boult C, et al.: Defining drought from the perspective of Australian farmers. Clim Risk Manag. 2022; 35: 100420. DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100420. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100420

Parliamentary Monitoring Group (PMG): Drought situation in Free State: Water affairs briefing; State of South African cities 2016: South African cities network briefing. 2016. Available at https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/23605/. Accessed January 10, 2023.

Wilhite DA, Sivakumar MVK, Pulwarty R: Managing drought risk in a changing climate: The role of national drought policy. Weather Clim Extremes. 2014; 3: 4-13. DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2014.01.002. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.01.002

South African Government: Local municipalities. 2021-2022. Available at https://www.gov.za/about-government/governmentsystem/local-government#:~:text=supporting%20service%20delivery.-,Municipalities,district%20and%20205%20local%20municipalities. Accessed November 24, 2023.

Division of Revenue: 2023 Budget review division of revenue and spending by provinces and municipalities. 2023. Available at https://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/national%20budget/2023/review/Chapter%206.pdf. Accessed November 24, 2023.

Pretorius A, Kruger E, Bezuidenhout S: Google Trends and water conservation awareness: The internet’s contribution in South Africa. S Afr Geograph J. 2022; 104(1): 53-69. DOI: 10.1080/03736245.2021.1901239. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/03736245.2021.1901239

Published

04/03/2024

How to Cite

Bayne, R. J., D. Pyle, M. Chipumuro, and R. Tandlich. “Rapid Assessment of Public Interest in Drought and Its Likely Drivers in South Africa”. Journal of Emergency Management, vol. 22, no. 7, Apr. 2024, pp. 101-12, doi:10.5055/jem.0834.