Rapid assessment of public interest in drought and its likely drivers in South Africa

Robyn J. Bayne; Des Pyle; Masterson Chipumuro; Roman Tandlich

doi:10.5055/jem.0834

Authors

Robyn J. Bayne
Des Pyle, PhD
Masterson Chipumuro, PhD
Roman Tandlich, PhD https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9696-0473

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5055/jem.0834

Keywords:

search volumes, Google Trends, monthly volumes, statistical analyses

Abstract

The monthly search volumes for drought were extracted from Google^® for South Africa using the Keywordseverywhere.com plugin from January 2004 until June 2022. To identify the potential qualitative drivers for such public interest the following data extracted by the plugin were investigated and analysed: the drought-related keywords, the long-tail keywords similar to drought, and the “people also searched for category” from the South African users. The Google Trends monthly score was extracted for South Africa and the Eastern Cape Province, and specific local municipalities/towns/cities in the province. The aim was to assess the relative significance of the drought interest in comparison to public interest in other search terms. The results of the Kruskal–Wallis analyses of variance by ranks showed that there was a statistically significant difference between individual values of the monthly search volumes for drought in South Africa, as a function of time of data extraction (5 percent level of significance; p-value ≤ 4.7 × 10−14). The monthly search volumes increased with time, which is based on the results of the Mann–Kendall test at a 5 percent level of significance (p-value ≤ 0.0092). Analyses of the Google Trends scores indicate that the relative interest in drought in South Africa and the Eastern Cape Province increased with time between January 2004 and June 2022 (the Mann–Kendall test at a 5 percent level of significance; p-value = 0.0011). The population’s searches for drought were relatively low when compared to other search terms on Google. Drought adaptation of the South African community could be considered a driver of the Google searches for drought, but it is a marginal topic compared to other topics in Google searches. It might be necessary to increase this significance by investigating the “Google-search patterns for droughts” in the areas of Tshikaro, Mafusini, Cofimvaba, and Nxotsheni in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.

Author Biographies

Robyn J. Bayne

School of Disaster Management, Stenden South Africa, Port Alfred, South Africa

Des Pyle, PhD

School of Disaster Management, Stenden South Africa, Port Alfred, South Africa

Masterson Chipumuro, PhD

School of Disaster Management, Stenden South Africa, Port Alfred, South Africa

Roman Tandlich, PhD

Disaster Management and Ethics Research Group (DMERG), Faculty of Pharmacy, Rhodes University, Grahamstown, South Africa

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